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Volume 34 Number 2 Volume 34 Number 3 Volume 34 Number 4

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Short reports

ScienceAsia 34 (2008): 335-340 |doi: 10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2008.34.335

Forecasting fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin

Sarawuth Chesoha,*, Apiradee Limb

ABSTRACT:     This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin in southern Thailand. Data comprise a total monthly fish catch in tonnes from January 1977 to December 2006. We fitted an observation-driven model to the logarithm of the total monthly fish catch. The model contains seasonal effects and time-lagged terms for the preceding two months. We obtained an r-squared of 51% with both the seasonal and timelagged coefficients which was statistically significant. Although the catch has decreased substantially in the last ten years, no long-term trend is evident. This model can be used for short-term and possibly medium-term fish catch forecasting. The catch in the Songkhla Lake basin may have exceeded the sustainable capacity due to over-exploitation and illegal fishing. Strengthening the political will to develop enforceable and sustainable fishing practices is therefore desirable.

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a Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives, Pattani 94160, Thailand
b Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattani 94000, Thailand

* Corresponding author, E-mail: Chesoh.s@hotmail.com

Received 15 Feb 2008, Accepted 25 Jun 2008